For two full years after the outbreak, those worried about the decline in housing prices never expected that global housing prices are rising at an unprecedented rate, and double-digit increases are already the norm in many countries.
Since the beginning of this year, housing prices in many countries around the world have experienced the biggest increase in a decade, and housing prices in developed countries such as Europe, North America, Japan and South Korea have increased astonishingly.
Global housing prices are rising rapidly
Of the 56 housing markets that currently publish housing statistics, 50 countries have seen nominal housing prices rise.
According to the "Global House Price Index", as of the second quarter of 2021, the global average house price has risen by 9.2% year-on-year.
Among them, advanced economies have seen the most ferocious gains. The report shows that as of the second quarter of this year, double-digit housing price increases in Europe, the United States, Canada and some countries and regions in the Asia-Pacific region are becoming the norm.
Turkey
In the first half of 2021, Turkey's house prices rose by 29.2% year-on-year, making it the city with the highest house price increase in the world for many years;
South Korea
South Korea’s national housing prices have risen by an average of 19.08% this year, the largest average increase in 14 years. In the past six years, about 3.41 million people moved out of Seoul, the capital of South Korea, due to excessively high housing prices. The problem of high housing prices has become a "big worry" for the South Korean government.
new Zealand
New Zealand's national median house price rose 23.4% year-on-year in October. The median house price in Auckland, New Zealand's largest city, rose to 1.25 million New Zealand dollars, or about 5.6 million yuan, an increase of 25%, setting a new record again.
America
As of the end of October, there were 1.25 million houses for sale in the United States, down 12% year-on-year. According to the current sales rate, the houses on the U.S. market will be sold out within three months.
In New Jersey, USA, a three-bedroom house was listed for US$399,000, but after fierce bidding, the house was finally sold for US$542,000, which was US$143,000 (nearly RMB 1 million) higher than the listed price. .
Housing prices are skyrocketing, a house is hard to find, just need to cry...
It's hard to imagine that such a thing will happen in 2021-while the epidemic is still not over, the world economy is facing its worst recession since World War II.
Behind the rise in house prices
The epidemic has not yet completely dissipated, and this round of skyrocketing global housing prices is confusing.
Logically speaking, when the economic situation is bad, everyone should be short of money, but why are so many people all over the world flooding into the property market?
Supply and demand
As you all know, prices are determined by the relationship between supply and demand. One direct reason is that under the epidemic, labor shortages and building materials costs have risen, and the supply of housing in many countries has been drastically reduced.
Take the United States as an example, there is a gap in the construction of 4 million houses, and there are more than 330,000 job vacancies in the construction industry.
Source | wind
On the demand side, the "millennial generation" has entered the age of buying houses. The epidemic has prompted people to pursue low-density, large-area living spaces. Telecommuting has caused people to move from urban areas to suburban areas... All of these have made home buyers in the market. too much.
The world's biggest "release of water"
In the past two years, the monetary policies of Europe, America and Australia have been very loose. Especially since 2020, many countries have entered the channel of interest rate cuts in order to stimulate the economy, and they have basically reached the lowest value in recent years.
Therefore, like housing loans in many countries, the interest cost is quite low, "rounding up is equivalent to no interest."
In Europe, zero interest rates or negative interest rates are common. Basically, there is no room for decline. If there is room for decline, they have been falling.
for example:
● New Zealand’s 1% interest rate is already very low. It will be cut to 0.25% in 2020;
● South Korea’s benchmark interest rate in 2019 is still 1.25%, and it will drop to 0.5% in 2020;
● Australia cut interest rates on the basis of 0.75%, and finally reached 0.1%, the same as the UK;
● Russia started to cut interest rates in 2019, from the highest value of 7.75%, and after 9 interest rate cuts, it reached 4.25%...
Everyone released water one after another. The total debt of the world has exceeded 300 trillion U.S. dollars, the highest in history.
In addition, data shows that since the spread of the new crown virus in March 2020, the US Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve have released a total of 31 trillion yuan in watermarks in just 76 weeks.
After the water was released, where did the money go?
At this time, the real estate market, the safest capital haven in the hearts of global investors, has become the eye of the storm.
Among them, is anyone speculating in real estate or speculation? Certainly, but mainly conservative safe-havens.
Many analysts believe that when the epidemic is superimposed on the dual risks of the global economic downturn, many people will put money into the property market for the purpose of capital hedging to protect their value.
Lu Hang, President and CEO of 21st Century Real Estate China, said in an interview: The European and American markets generally have a rising cycle of 5 to 8 years. This wave of real estate cycles should have gone for more than two years. According to the logic of the past, it should be There are two to three years of growth.
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